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Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T05:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41585/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T06:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51003
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Oct 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2025  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 008

Coronal mass ejections: A second wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 570) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, lifting off the east limb around 07:00 UTC on October 03. It is most likely associated with the M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare
5665) that peaked at 05:23 UTC on October 03, associated with SIDC Sunspot
Group 657 (NOAA Active Region 4236). Current analysis suggests a small
chance for a glancing blow arrival starting from the UTC evening on October
06.

Lead Time: 67.23 hour(s)
Difference: -14.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-03T11:21Z

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